The projected socio-economic development of Kazakhstan for 2023-2027 and the draft budget for 2023-2025 were assessed at a government meeting on Saturday, August 27, QazMonitor reports citing the press service of the prime minister.
According to the Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov, the prognosis takes into account the results of the economic growth for 2021 and export expenses. It also considered reports on the state of the world economy by international financial organizations.
The budget was drafted under the baseline scenario, which sets the average oil price at $85 per barrel and the estimated exchange rate at ₸470 per $1. The scenario forecasts the average growth of GDP at 3.9% and 4% in 2023. Exports and all major sectors of the economy are expected to grow.
On the issue of inflation, Deputy Governor of the National Bank Akylzhan Baimagambetov said that the target corridor of annual inflation in 2023 is projected to be in the range of 7.5-9.5%.
The draft of the national budget for 2023-2025 was presented by Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev. According to him, the revenues for next year are projected at ₸17.8 trillion, with guaranteed transfer from the National Fund attracting ₸2.2 trillion with a slight decrease compared to 2022.
Expected expenditures in 2023 amount to ₸21 trillion with an increase of ₸2.2 trillion for the development of the social sphere. The support of the real economy will cost ₸2.1 trillion.
Prime Minister Smailov noted that the submitted draft aims to implement the state’s social obligations, ensuring the sustainable development of the economy in the current situation. The government’s priority in the real economy remain focused on supporting businesses, the manufacturing industry, the development of transport infrastructure, and the continued progress towards gasification.
Smailov also stressed that the amount of the transfers from the National Fund will be significantly reduced in the following years: ₸1.4 trillion in 2023, ₸800 billion in 2024, and ₸500 billion in 2025.
The growth of GDP in 2023-2025 is projected at 4-4.1%, with the decrease of the average annual inflation rate to 3-4% by 2025. Revenues of the state budget in 2023 will increase by ₸3 trillion. Therefore, we expect a high level of growth rate of budget’s internal revenues.
He clarified that the guaranteed transfer will not exceed the National Fund’s revenues from the oil sector.
"We are faced with the task of using budget funds as efficiently as possible," summarized the prime minister.
Smailov instructed the Ministry of National Economy and the Ministry of Finance to work in tandem with the Office of the Prime Minister to ensure the submission of the draft to the Parliament.