Kazakhstan's Population to Reach 27.7M by 2050, Study Says

Country expects demographic boom amid global slowdown

By Symbat Nurolla

liter.kz

The forecasting department of JSC "Center for Workforce Development" released an analysis with their estimates of Kazakhstan's demography in 2030 and 2050, Qazmonitor reports with reference to Delovoy Kazakhstan.

2030 and 2050

According to the forecast, the population of Kazakhstan by 2030 may go from 20.8 million (under a negative scenario) to 21.5 million (under a positive scenario) people, and from 23.5 to 27.7 million by 2050.

The current population of Kazakhstan is 19,400,350 based on projections of the latest United Nations data. Under a positive scenario, in eight years, the population size would have grown by roughly 10.8%.

Compared to the global trend, Kazakhstan is in pretty good standing, even in the case of a negative scenario which would account for a tentative 7% growth. A UN report revealed that, despite the fact that the world population will exceed 8 billion in November of this year, the recent global population growth dipped under 1%, a record low since the aftermath of the second world war.

Cities

The data from the Center also looked at growth in every Kazakh city. By 2030, population size was predicted to increase the most in Nur-Sultan - by 420,000 people, or 33%, to 1.7 million; in Almaty - by 414,000 people, or 20%, to 2,466,000; and in Shymkent - by 369,000 people, or 32%, to 1.5 million.

In addition, the data showed that the Kazakh population will increase in the Turkestan region by 207,000 people, in the Mangistau region - by 170,000 people, and in the Almaty region - by 145,000 people. Reduction of the population is expected in the East Kazakhstan, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Pavlodar and Akmola regions.

By 2050, analysts say Shymkent will lead in terms of population growth, with a 2.8 million people count - an increase by 1,679,000 people, or 2.5 times in comparison with 2022.

In Nur-Sultan, the growth will be 1,634,000 people, an increase of 2.3 times to 2.9 million. In Almaty, the number of inhabitants will increase to 3.5 million people or by 1.4 million (+69% by 2022). In the Mangistau region, the population will grow by 820,000 people, as a result of which the number of the region will be 1,571,000 people.

World

The UN forecasts show that more than half of the projected population growth (1.8 billion people) will be concentrated in eight countries: India (253 million), Nigeria (159 million), Pakistan (132 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (118 million), Ethiopia (91 million), Tanzania (64 million), Egypt (49 million) and the Philippines (42 million).

Among the countries whose population will decrease by 2050, China came out on top with a decline of 113 million people (7.9%) compared with 2022, followed by Japan (by 20 million people, or 16.3%), Russia (11.6 million people or 8%), Italy (6.8 million people or 11.5%), Ukraine (6.8 million people or 17.2%), South Korea (by 6 million people or 11.7%), Poland (by 4.9 million people or 12.4%) and Germany (by 4.4 million people or 5.3%).

In addition, of the countries with populations over 1 million, the largest depopulation in relative terms by 2050 is expected in the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, namely Bulgaria (-23.5%), Latvia (-22.5%), Lithuania (-20.5%), Serbia (-20%) and Croatia (-17.3%). Population decline in a number of countries will cause the world to continue to "age". It is predicted that the share of the population aged 65 and over will rise from 10% this year to 16% in 2050.

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